FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: June 30, 2025
Coyote Codornices Marin (they/them)
Independent California Institute
director@ic.institute
Poll: Californians ready to govern themselves, but slim majority would sink secession initiative
Carlsbad, CA: A record 71% of Californians said they would be better off if California negotiated special autonomous status within the U.S., giving Californians more control over decisions currently made by the federal government, in a poll conducted this June. The poll was conducted by YouGov for the Independent California Institute, a non-profit think-tank.
In addition, 66% of Californians want the state to create a permanent state commission dedicated to helping the state gain more autonomy from the federal government, including over Californians’ federal tax dollars. 60% want California’s House congressional delegation to back California’s push for autonomy with “hardball tactics,” such as refusing to pass a budget.
Californians’ confidence in the federal government has collapsed since Trump took office, with 50% of Californians saying they trust Sacramento more than Washington, and only 23% saying the opposite. When the Institute’s previous poll ran in January, the numbers were 34% and 18%.
This and previous polls commissioned by the Institute have consistently shown that about three-fifths of Californians believe they’d be better off if peacefully seceded from the U.S. However this doesn’t translate directly into support for secession. When asked if they would vote for a ballot initiative that would “declare California’s intention to peacefully and legally withdraw from the United States, through negotiation with the federal government“ 44% were in favor and 54% were against.
“This is a record high poll result for secession,” said the Institute’s executive director, Coyote Marin, citing 12 other polls going all the way back to 2014. “At the same time, it indicates that passing the Calexit initiative or something similar would be a steep uphill climb, especially without special autonomous status as an option.”
The poll identified more than a dozen other changes to state policy that enjoyed clear majority support and would increase California’s autonomy. Three of these policies, enjoying more than 70% support would use California law enforcement to make Californians safer, though in ways that might be surprising:
- 71% want a new state law enforcement division focused on violent extremism and hate crimes.
- 72% want California police to arrest federal immigration officials that “act maliciously or knowingly exceed their authority under federal law.”
- 80% want California to control its borders with other states “more like a country,” checking for illegal guns, drugs, and other contraband.
Other policies with at least 70% support include:
- Making it easier for county boards of supervisors to remove sheriffs who violate state law or county policies (76%)
- Creating a path to state citizenship for long-term California residents who don’t hold U.S. citizenship (74%)
- Closing a loophole that allows ballot initiatives to write equal protection violations into California’s constitution (73%)
- Doubling the maximum size of the state government’s Rainy Day Fund (77%)
“Californians are ready to govern themselves and are focused on pragmatic solutions,” said the Independent California Institute’s vice chair, Dr. Timothy Vollmer. “We are ready.”
The poll was conducted between June 11 and 23, and interviewed 500 California adults. It has a margin of error of ±5.7%.For more topline results, analysis, and the full poll methodology, see https://ic.institute/poll. You can also view the full text of the poll at https://ic.institute/poll-questions.
