FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 26, 2024

Coyote Codornices Marin (they/them)
Independent California Institute
press@ic.institute

Poll: 58% of Californians say they’d be better off if California peacefully seceded

Carlsbad, CA: Do Californians long to change their relationship with the U.S., but don’t know how to ask for it? According to a new poll, the answer is yes.

A clear majority (58%) of California adults say that Californians would be better off than they are now if California peacefully seceded from the U.S. at some point in the next ten years. The poll was conducted by YouGov for the Independent California Institute, a non-profit think tank.

A supermajority (68%) of Californians said that Californians would be better off than they are now if California negotiated a special autonomous status within the U.S. and arranged for almost all federal land and water infrastructure in California to be transferred to state and local government.

These are much higher numbers than found in polls which simply asked Californians if their state should secede. For example, a poll conducted by the same polling agency in early February found that only 29% of Californians said yes to the question “Would you support your state seceding from the U.S.?”

But the numbers don’t lie—the difference is in the question. “Simply asking people if they support their state seceding is really about six different questions in one, including whether they’d be okay with violence,” said Coyote Marin, Executive Director of the Independent California Institute. They added, “if you take unilateral secession and violence off the table, independence resonates a lot more with the average Californian.”

The poll made several other fascinating findings:

72% of Californians think it’s at least somewhat accurate to refer to California as a “nation-state,” implying that California is in some ways its own nation already.

Only 40% Californians believe that California could leave the U.S., even with the approval of Congress. Californians’ 10% jump in support between the secession and special autonomy scenarios (from 58% to 68%) comes almost entirely from Californians who agreed more with the statement “the Civil War decided that states cannot secede.”

Almost 60% of respondents said Californians would be better off with respect to trade, health care, guns, and immigration if California peacefully seceded. Slightly less than 50% said Californains would be better off with regards to water and the military.

Only 21% of respondents said they feel more Californian than American. However, 63% said they can’t imagine themselves wanting to live anywhere in the U.S. but California.

For more topline results, analysis, and the full poll methodology, see https://ic.institute/poll-topline.

The Independent California Institute will be releasing crosstabs in early March, along with an analysis of which Californians are most likely to support independence and why.